October 2024

In the highly competitive online sportsbook world, traditional retention tactics like free bet rewards, FOMO, and social proof have become the standard. But to truly differentiate your brand, you need to dig deeper into the psychology of player behavior. Today, we’re exploring unconventional strategies that go beyond the obvious—tapping into behavioral patterns that are often overlooked but incredibly powerful. These unique approaches can help create stronger emotional bonds and highly immersive player experiences that drive long-term loyalty. Micro-Ownership of Teams: Let Players Invest Emotionally Sports fans are passionate, but most sportsbooks fail to capitalize on that deep emotional investment. Imagine if betting didn’t just feel like a transaction, but gave players the sensation of truly being part of their favorite teams’ success. Out-of-the-box Tip: Offer a micro-ownership feature where players can purchase symbolic shares in their favorite teams or athletes. While these shares aren’t tied to actual equity, they unlock exclusive in-app perks like tailored odds, insider content, or even the ability to influence minor team decisions, such as which jerseys they wear. This taps into a powerful sense of belonging and emotional investment that keeps players coming back—not just for the win, but for the deeper connection they feel with their team. Flow-State Betting: Personalized Bets for Ultimate Immersion Flow is the sweet spot where players are fully engaged, immersed, and performing at their peak. In sports betting, most operators focus on fast-paced or high-stakes betting, but flow occurs when the challenge is perfectly matched to skill level—keeping players engaged without feeling overwhelmed or under-stimulated. Out-of-the-box Tip: Introduce flow-state betting by leveraging AI to personalize betting experiences based on a player’s psychological profile. Casual players can receive easy, low-stakes predictions, while high-experience bettors face intricate betting combinations that push their limits. This adaptive approach keeps players engaged in a state of flow, providing a deeper sense of satisfaction and immersion that goes beyond simple wins. Loss Aversion Reimagined: Bet Recovery as a Game Loss aversion—the tendency to feel the sting of losses more than the joy of wins—can discourage players after a losing streak. While most operators try to soothe this with cashback or bonuses, there’s a more creative way to help players feel empowered after losses. Out-of-the-box Tip: Launch a Bet Recovery Challenge, where players can earn back losses by completing fun, skill-based tasks. Instead of just receiving compensation, they can regain ground through trivia or predictions related to their favorite teams. This not only helps players feel back in control but also transforms a loss into an opportunity for skill-building and engagement—shifting the emotional impact from frustration to achievement. Final Thoughts: Rethinking Player Retention for Deeper Engagement Standard tactics like free bet rewards, FOMO, and social proof have their place, but they barely scratch the surface of what’s possible. By tapping into deeper psychological triggers like emotional investment, time perception, and personalized immersion, you can create stronger, longer-lasting connections with your players. At Bet Data Consultants, we’re redefining the future of player retention with innovative, psychology-driven strategies. Want to take your sportsbook to the next level? Let’s have a conversation about how we can help you unlock new levels of engagement and loyalty. Contact us on LinkedIn or email us at info@betdataconsultants.com for a free consultation today. Let’s rethink retention together

Here’s a simple challenge, but with a twist: if you can solve it (and you haven’t seen it before), you’re among the 10% who can truly call themselves both intelligent and wise. If you can’t solve it—don’t worry, you’ll be in the same boat as the other 90% of us who didn’t figure it out either! Here’s the challenge: Take a pen and paper and draw nine dots arranged in a 3×3 grid, similar to the image provided below. The dots should be evenly spaced in a square pattern—three dots per row and three dots per column. The Rules: Connect all nine dots using four straight lines. You cannot lift your pen from the paper while drawing the lines. The lines must be continuous—once you start drawing, you can’t stop until all the dots are connected. Take a moment to try it for yourself! If you’ve never solved this puzzle before, you might find it more challenging than it seems. How did you do? 90% of people struggle to solve it because they unintentionally impose a cognitive bias, assuming the problem must be solved within the boundaries of the “box” formed by the dots. However, the rules never stated that. This is how our cognition operates—we come equipped with mental frames and assumptions. If we lack the ability to step back and reframe a problem, this is when intelligence alone is not enough! In fact, the phrase “thinking outside the box” originated from this very puzzle. Solving it requires you to go beyond the obvious, thinking past perceived boundaries—just as leaders must do if they are to survive and thrive. Below is the solution to the puzzle. This leads us into today’s discussion: Why intelligence alone isn’t enough… The Trap of Intelligence: Dr. John Vervaeke’s Insights Dr. John Vervaeke, a brillant cognitive scientist, award-winning professor, and one of the world’s leading experts on Wisdom, Intelligence, and Rationality, makes a compelling case for the limits of intelligence. Vervaeke’s research uncovers a striking truth: being intelligent doesn’t automatically make you wise or rational. In fact, there’s only a weak correlation (about 0.3) between intelligence and wisdom, meaning that intelligence alone doesn’t ensure sound judgment. Even more, intelligence can very often mislead you. Vervaeke explains that when we’re wrong, our intellect often tricks us into doubling down, convincing ourselves—and sometimes others—that we’re right. That’s why humility is so important. For highly intelligent people, who’ve been rewarded their whole lives for being smart, admitting they might not always have the answers is difficult. But it’s also essential. Wisdom comes from recognizing your limitations, seeking out other perspectives, and accepting the possibility that you might be wrong. Unfortunately, today’s world often fails to emphasize this message. The Solomon Effect: Why Third-Party Advice Matters Vervaeke’s work ties into cutting-edge concepts like Predictive Processing, which are now driving advancements in AI. When intelligence goes wrong, it often reinforces itself, as our brains look for patterns that fit our worldview, even when those patterns are flawed. This is where the Solomon Effect comes in—the idea that third-party advice is often more reliable than our own judgment. If you find yourself stuck in a mental loop—certain that your solution is correct, even when it’s not—outside perspectives can help break that cycle. And this isn’t just theory; it’s backed by science. For example, the success rate of solving the 9-dot problem jumps from 10% to 80% when discussed with others. That’s a significant improvement, and it shows why collaboration is crucial—no matter how smart you think you are. From Individual to Collective Wisdom So why does working in a group increase the success rate of the 9-dot problem so drastically? It’s because other people challenge your assumptions, introduce fresh perspectives, and help you spot solutions you might overlook on your own. When you collaborate, you confront your biases, explore alternatives, and refine your thinking. Diverse inputs lead to better decision-making. For leaders in any industry, the lesson is clear: don’t fall in love with your own intellect. The complexity of today’s business environment—spanning compliance, product development, CRM, and more—requires wisdom that comes from collaboration and external insights. Vervaeke teaches that developing rationality means stepping outside the bubble of our own intelligence. We need to learn how to trust others, embrace humility, and recognize that our judgment is not always reliable. None of us gets it right all the time, and if you’re reading this thinking “that’s not me,” well, the science suggests you’re already in trouble. What’s Next? If you’ve realized, like the rest of us, that you’re susceptible to cognitive biases, it’s time to think about how they might be impacting your life first, and then your organization. Are your decisions truly data-driven and unbiased? Are you leaning too heavily on your own expertise rather than tapping into the collective wisdom of your team? If you’re focused on improving your iGaming business, Bet Data Consultants is here to help. With 15 years of industry experience and insights from cutting-edge behavioral science, we collaborate with you to boost efficiency, enhance profitability, and provide fresh, data-driven perspectives to elevate your operations. Discover why so many iGaming leaders are turning to us for expert third-party counsel that can transform their businesses. Contact us today for a free consultation via LinkedIn or email at info@betdataconsultants.com.

Live streaming is often considered a must-have for sportsbooks, particularly for larger operators competing on the global stage. It makes sense for them—they generate the revenue to justify the investment. But for smaller operators, the situation is very different. Live streaming can be a costly endeavor, with expenses surpassing £30,000 a month. The real question for smaller sportsbooks is: Does the investment justify the return? If you’re a smaller operator, it’s worth stepping back to analyze the numbers carefully. Those selling live streaming services will likely tell you that you need it because your competitors have it. But is that necessarily true? What if you took a different approach and used that money to enhance other areas of your business? The investment in live streaming might not be the best use of your resources. At Bet Data Consultants, we recently worked with a client facing a streaming dilemma. Many within the business insisted that streaming had to remain in place, fearing it would reflect poorly on the company and cause financial harm if removed. After conducting an independent review of all their contracts and expenses, we provided unbiased data analysis. While there were concerns that removing the streaming service would weaken the product, the numbers simply didn’t support keeping it. We advised that the funds could be better allocated to improving the product in other areas. The business took our advice and removed the streaming service, with no negative impact on their sportsbook performance. The key takeaway here is that just because everyone else is doing something doesn’t mean you should. Let your data guide your decisions, not predetermined biases. This is the only way to thrive and survive in an increasingly crowded and expensive marketplace. This experience isn’t unique. We’ve seen similar patterns with many other businesses. Before committing to an expensive commercial contract, it’s essential to evaluate your individual business goals and not just blindly follow the crowd Sometimes, going against industry norms can provide a strategic advantage by reallocating funds to other areas of the business that can have a greater impact. At Bet Data Consultants, we offer free independent analysis of every aspect of your sportsbook business. Our expertise helps clients identify areas that may be underperforming, and we provide data-based, actionable insights to enhance your operations. If you want to see why so many businesses in the iGaming industry are partnering with us, reach out for a free consultation today. Contact us on LinkedIn or email us at info@betdataconsultants.com for a free consultation today. Want To Know How A Nobel Prize Winner Can Explain Your Poor Sportsbook & Casino VIP Performance :Read Here… https://betdataconsultants.com/how-a-nobel-prize-winner-can-explain-your-sportsbook-casino-vip-performance-problem/

Derek had always been the brightest person in the room. In school, he sailed through exams, consistently rewarded for his ability to solve problems quickly and efficiently. Teachers admired his keen intellect, and his classmates looked up to him. By the time he finished university, Derek had earned top grades and had multiple job offers to choose from. He selected the iGaming industry, drawn by its fast pace and the potential for quick advancement. It didn’t take Derek long to climb the corporate ladder. His intelligence was his greatest strength, allowing him to solve operational issues faster than anyone else.. He gained a reputation as the go-to person to “fix it”—whether it was a technical problem, a marketing hurdle, or a complex regulatory challenge. But then, things started to shift. The Hidden Pitfall of Intelligence This is where Derek, like many other intelligent leaders, fell into a trap—a trap that modern cognitive science, especially Predictive Processing theory, explains very well. Derek’s brain had become accustomed to years of success, always relying on the same tool—his intelligence—to tackle challenges. But here’s where it gets intriguing: cognitive biases, like overconfidence bias, frequently cloud the judgment of highly intelligent individuals. Derek was no different. And as John Vervaeke, a world renowned expert on intelligence and rationality, points out, leaning too heavily on intelligence can actually prevent leaders from developing the rationality required to navigate complex situations. Research shows that people with high IQs are just as vulnerable—if not more so—to making poor decisions when faced with ambiguous, real-world challenges. In fact, a 2015 study published in Thinking & Reasoning revealed that individuals with higher cognitive abilities were more likely to succumb to biases like overconfidence, particularly in complex, uncertain environments. Why? Because their intelligence enables them to rationalize poor choices, making them feel justified, even when the evidence is weak.. Predictive Processing: Why Derek’s Brain Betrayed Him According to Predictive Processing theory, which is at the forefront of cognitive science and underpins the development of advanced AI systems, Derek’s brain had built a model shaped by years of success.. This model predicted outcomes based on familiar patterns: “I’ve always solved problems this way, so it should still work.” However, as Derek moved into leadership—where decisions are rarely straightforward and success depends on juggling competing priorities—his brain continued to interpret new information through this outdated model, preventing him from adjusting to the complex demands of his new role. The Price of Overconfidence in Business Derek’s story is not unusual. In fact, a 2021 McKinsey study found that over 80% of business leaders cited overconfidence in decision-making as a major obstacle to long-term success. Another study by Harvard Business Review concluded that highly intelligent individuals are more prone to falling into decision-making traps because they often focus on solving the immediate problem rather than considering the broader, messier context. Why does this happen? It’s simple: intelligence and rationality are not the same. Intelligence is the ability to solve clear, well-defined problems. Rationality, however, is the ability to make sound decisions in complex, real-world situations where there may not be a single “right” answer. The Science Behind Smart People Making Bad Decisions Here’s another surprising insight: research shows that being highly intelligent does not protect you from cognitive biases. In fact, it makes you more susceptible..  A 2019 study in Psychological Science confirmed that individuals with high intelligence scores were better at justifying their decisions, even when those decisions were wrong.. In essence, they become more skilled at convincing themselves (and others) that they are right, even when they are missing vital information.. How to Train Rationality and Avoid Cognitive Biases So, how can leaders like Derek—and perhaps you—steer clear of these traps? The good news is that rationality can be trained. Here are some evidence-based strategies that have proven effective in enhancing decision-making skills: Cultivate Cognitive Flexibility: A core principle of Predictive Processing is that the brain is adaptable—it can adjust its predictions when confronted with new information. Leaders need to practice this flexibility by actively seeking data that challenges their assumptions. Promote independent audits and cross-departmental feedback to question your thinking.. Reflect on Decision-Making Processes: Instead of just focusing on outcomes, evaluate how you arrived at a decision. Ask yourself, “What assumptions did I make? What data did I overlook?” Reflective thinking, supported by studies from the University of Toronto, can reveal hidden biases influencing your decisions. Diversify Your Perspectives: Surround yourself with people who view the world differently. A 2022 study in Leadership Quarterly found that teams with diverse viewpoints made better decisions and were less prone to biases like groupthink or confirmation bias. Encourage departments within your organization to challenge each other’s ideas. Reward Long-Term Thinking: Intelligence tends to favor short-term problem-solving, while rationality emphasizes long-term strategic thinking. Adjust your KPIs to reward employees not just for quick fixes but for decisions that support the company’s long-term success. Unlocking Rationality: The Path Forward If you’ve read this far, you have two options. The first is to acknowledge that you may have seen similar patterns in yourself or your organization—but choose to continue without addressing this complex issue that not only affects businesses but also leads to broader challenges in . Or, the second option: recognize that while you may be smart, even the smartest people must keep evolving. In today’s world, intelligence is often celebrated, but it’s rational leaders who truly succeed. Let us help you become one of them. The choice is yours. Contact us via LinkedIn or at: info@betdataconsultants.com

It’s the end of the quarter, and you’re sitting with your executive team in the boardroom. Alex, your head of VIP, is walking everyone through the latest figures. VIP engagement is up, and rewards are being claimed at record rates. On paper, everything looks great. Sarah from finance is nodding in approval at the numbers, and Megan from operations is busy noting down the increasing engagement levels. But despite the optimism in the room, something doesn’t feel right. You’ve been investing heavily in VIP rewards, yet profitability remains stagnant—or even worse, it’s beginning to decline. The more you give, the less it seems to yield. So, what’s going wrong? Let’s take a closer look at what Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize winner in Economic Sciences, would say is the root of your problem The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Holding onto the Past Let’s start with the obvious: the Sunk Cost Fallacy. As Amos Tversky and Nobel Winner Daniel Kahneman famously researched, we’re wired to keep investing in something if we’ve already put significant time or resources into it—even when the strategy is clearly no longer working. In VIP management, this bias manifests when you keep pouring resources into players who were once profitable but no longer deliver value. Alex, for instance, has been showering one of your long-time VIPs, Jeff, with rewards based on his performance from 6 months ago. But here’s the problem—Jeff’s betting has dropped off considerably, and the data shows her profitability has plummeted. Yet, Alex continues to invest in him, feeling tied to the time and effort spent cultivating that relationship. Research Insight: A 2023 study by Eilers & Krejcik Gaming found that 18% of VIP player engagement rose across major sportsbooks, yet profitability from VIPs dropped by 7%. Why? Reward systems were not updated to reflect real-time player value, a classic case of the Sunk Cost Fallacy in action. Loss Aversion Bias: Fear of Changing Course Loss Aversion is another powerful bias in play. Nobel Prize Winner Daniel Kahneman’s research on loss aversion shows that people fear losing what they already have more than they value potential gains. In VIP management, this fear often leads to decision-makers sticking with a failing strategy because they’re afraid of what will happen if they cut back on rewards or change their approach. Megan, your operations director, is a classic case. She’s worried that if you stop offering premium rewards to lower-tier VIPs, you’ll lose them entirely. But the data shows that these players are not profitable, and continuing to reward them generously is eroding your margins. Research Insight: A 2021 study from the Journal of Behavioral Finance found that loss aversion is a key factor in businesses’ reluctance to scale down ineffective VIP strategies, leading to a 15% decrease in profitability in affected programs. The Bandwagon Effect: Following the Crowd Your VIP strategy may also be falling prey to the Bandwagon Effect. Megan mentions that other sportsbooks in the industry are running similar VIP programs, offering the same rewards and engagement tactics. So, your team believes you must be on the right track if everyone else is doing it. But the problem with the Bandwagon Effect is that it ignores your own unique player base. Just because other sportsbooks are offering certain rewards or incentives doesn’t mean it will work for you. Your data might show that your VIPs have different preferences or require a different approach, but if you’re too focused on copying competitors, you’ll miss those insights. Actionable Tip: Use your own behavioral analytics to drive decisions rather than mimicking what competitors are doing. A 2022 YouGov study found that 45% of VIP players disengaged from loyalty programs because they felt rewards were generic and unoriginal. 1. Segment Within Segments Sub-segmentation is key to understanding the true value of your VIP players. Going beyond broad metrics, you can identify which VIPs are worth your investment and which are draining your resources. Case Study: A UK-based sportsbook increased VIP profitability by 12% in 2023 by shifting resources to the top 10% of VIPs and cutting back on rewards for less profitable players. 2. Personalize, Don’t Generalize It’s easy to fall into the trap of offering the same rewards to all VIPs, but this won’t resonate with today’s players. Use behavioral analytics to tailor offers based on real-time data. By understanding each player’s preferences, you can offer rewards that feel personal and meaningful. Insight: The 2021 Global iGaming Study by Statista revealed that 63% of VIPs preferred personalized offers, and those programs saw higher engagement and retention rates. 3. Implement Independent Review Sometimes, the best way to see through your own biases is to bring in an outsider. An independent review can highlight blind spots and provide an objective analysis of your VIP strategy. Research Insight: A 2021 study from the Journal of Behavioral Finance found that businesses using external reviews for their VIP programs saw a 13% improvement in performance. Conclusion: Adapt and Thrive Many iGaming business leaders we’ve worked with have previously assumed, or been led to believe, that all these strategies are already in place. However, if your VIP performance isn’t where it should be, the data suggests otherwise. If you’ve identified any of these issues in your business, whether through reflection or research, it’s likely that simply having the knowledge isn’t enough to create real change. This is often due to the “knowledge-action gap bias,” a common challenge where teams have the necessary information but fail to act on it. This gap can arise from inertia, fear of change, or being overwhelmed by the complexity of implementation That’s why many forward-thinking, data-driven companies in the iGaming industry are turning to Bet Data Consultants. We understand that having the right strategy is only half the battle—what truly counts is execution. As the only iGaming consultancy that combines cutting-edge strategies grounded in world-class behavioral science with over 15 years of industry expertise, we specialize in bridging the gap between knowledge and action. We transform insights into profitable results,

You’re sitting in your monthly business review meeting. Terry, your CRM director—someone you’ve worked with before, someone you trust and hired—is presenting the numbers. He’s confident, walking you through key metrics, saying engagement is up, players are sticking around longer, and things are moving in the right direction. But here’s the thing: you’ve seen the data. You know that not every month has been as good as he’s making it sound. Some months have seen a big dip, and something just isn’t adding up. Why Your CRM Strategy is Failing You hired Terry (familiarity bias) because he delivered great results for you at your last company, and you know he’s skilled at what he does. But here’s the thing—it’s probably not Terry’s fault. It’s not about his ability or hard work. What’s happening here goes much deeper; it’s rooted in human nature and evolution. Terry, like most of us, is suffering from a cognitive bias—a mental shortcut that’s well-documented in research. In fact, studies show that 80-90% of people are affected by cognitive biases in different areas of life. These biases influence our decisions, our interpretations of data, and even our ability to adapt when something isn’t working as well as we think it is. Let’s break this down further… 1. One-Size-Fits-All Isn’t Cutting It You’re starting to realize that what worked in your last company may not automatically work here. Terry is falling into the Sunk Cost Fallacy—he’s overly invested in a strategy that worked before, and he’s reluctant to change course, even when the signs are there. In McKinsey’s 2019 study, it was found that businesses that tailored their CRM strategies to the unique characteristics of their audience saw a 15% boost in customer retention. Terry’s strategy might have been spot-on for the experienced punters at your previous company, but is it resonating with the casual players you’re working with now? The signs suggest otherwise. Sticking to a one-size-fits-all approach is likely leaving profits on the table. Data Insight: Businesses that tailor their CRM strategies to their specific customer base are 30% more likely to see a positive impact on profitability. 2. Groupthink: A Silent Profit Killer Let’s be honest: you hired Terry, you’ve worked with him before, and you’ve probably told the whole team how good he is. They trust him because you trust him. But this could be leading to groupthink, where no one feels comfortable questioning his approach. Everyone wants to stay aligned with the strategy, even if they have doubts. In business, almost everyone stays silent when they disagree with the senior team’s strategy because they don’t want to be seen as wrong—that’s loss aversion bias at play. A study by Gallup showed that companies fostering diverse and open discussions saw a 25% increase in overall team performance, with more innovation and profitability coming from fresh ideas. In iGaming, where customer preferences can change rapidly, a stagnant CRM strategy due to groupthink can be particularly harmful. 3. Overconfidence Bias: The Trap of Past Success Terry has always delivered for you. You’ve both seen success together in the past. But that’s exactly the danger—overconfidence bias. Success in the past can make it hard to admit when things aren’t going as planned now. Maybe Terry’s cherry-picking data to support the story he wants to tell. Maybe neither of you wants to face the fact that this strategy isn’t working as well as it used to. It’s tough to admit when a strategy is failing—no one likes to be wrong (loss aversion bias), especially not in front of a room full of colleagues. But if you keep pushing down the same path out of loyalty or fear of failure, you could be leaving profits on the table A report from Harvard Business Review found that businesses that regularly reassess and pivot their CRM strategies based on real-time data see a 40% improvement in long-term profitability. This highlights the importance of overcoming biases and making data-driven decisions rather than relying on past successes. Practical Steps to Overcome CRM Biases in iGaming To overcome these biases and ensure your CRM strategies lead to real profitability, here are some actionable steps: 1. Reassess Regularly Even though Terry has a track record of success, it’s crucial to regularly audit your CRM campaigns. Just because engagement is up doesn’t mean the strategy is driving profits. By looking deeper into real-time data, you might find that certain segments of your audience aren’t converting as expected. A report by Forrester showed that companies with a dynamic CRM strategy—one that adapts to changing conditions—see a 20% higher customer lifetime value than those sticking to a static approach 2. Foster Open Dialogue In your review meetings with Terry, it’s important to create a culture where everyone feels comfortable speaking up, even if it means questioning a strategy that Terry or leadership supports. A Stanford study found that teams that encouraged open discussions and diverse viewpoints experienced a 30% improvement in innovation, leading to more effective solutions. 3. Segment Your Segments To truly succeed, you need to break down your player base into smaller, more defined segments. In many businesses we’ve worked with, we’ve found that just 1-5% of the customer base is responsible for generating 50% of the profits. This highlights the importance of refining your segments and tailoring your strategies based on real data. 4. Test and Pivot While Terry’s strategy might have worked well in the past, it’s crucial to continuously A/B test your CRM efforts and be ready to pivot when things aren’t performing as expected. What worked for one player segment may not work for another, and sticking to the same approach without testing can result in missed opportunities. Data from Statista shows that companies that frequently test and adjust their CRM efforts see a 37% increase in customer retention. 5. Hire Experts Unfortunately, if you’ve noticed any of these behaviors in your business, it’s almost certain that knowledge alone won’t be enough to spark change. This is due to the

In 1812, Napoleon Bonaparte ignored critical intelligence about supply shortages and the harsh Russian winter. Rather than reassessing his plan based on new data, he relied on past military successes and continued his invasion of Russia. The result? A disastrous defeat that wiped out most of his army. Napoleon fell victim to anchoring bias—a psychological trap that affects 80-90% of people, and leaders are no exception. It occurs when individuals fixate on initial information and fail to adapt to new realities. Now, compare that to Socrates, who famously stated, “I know that I know nothing.” Socrates’ philosophy of questioning assumptions and remaining open to new insights can serve as an antidote to the dangers of anchoring bias. In the rapidly evolving world of iGaming, where player behavior, technology, and regulations shift frequently, which leadership style are you emulating? What is Anchoring Bias, and Why Should You Care? Anchoring bias occurs when decision-makers rely too heavily on initial information and fail to adjust based on new insights. In the world leading framework of how the brain operates, predictive processing, this is like being stuck on an outdated prediction and refusing to update your model, even when new errors or signals indicate a need for change. Studies show that 80-90% of decision-makers are affected by anchoring bias, leading them to continue relying on outdated strategies even when the data suggests otherwise. For the fast-moving iGaming industry—projected to grow from $81 billion in 2023 to over $127 billion by 2027—the ability to update assumptions is critical. Clinging to old models of player behavior or relying on surface-level metrics like player acquisition can result in missed opportunities for growth and optimization. A stark example is when iGaming leaders see player acquisition metrics rise but ignore red flags like flat or declining revenue. This is a clear manifestation of anchoring bias, where teams fixate on favorable metrics rather than considering prediction errors that indicate a mismatch in expectations—such as low player retention or declining lifetime value (LTV). According to H2 Gambling Capital, in 2022, player acquisition increased by 12%, but only 25% of operators saw a corresponding increase in revenue. This is a prime example of companies anchoring themselves to acquisition metrics and ignoring key insights that challenge their assumptions, such as player engagement and retention. Spotting Anchoring Bias in iGaming To mitigate anchoring bias, it’s important to continually update your “predictions” based on fresh data. In the iGaming context, this means recognizing patterns of anchoring bias by monitoring these warning signs: Misleading Metrics: Are you seeing increased acquisition rates but stagnant revenue? This disconnect often signals a failure to update your expectations around player lifetime value (LTV) and retention. Stat to Consider: The Global Betting and Gaming Consultants (GBGC) found that companies leveraging deep player segmentation for reporting experienced a 35% boost in retention, compared to those who relied solely on top-level metrics. Vague or Post-Hoc KPIs: If your success metrics are unclear or if teams cherry-pick KPIs after campaigns conclude, you may be anchored to pre-existing strategies that are no longer viable. Key Insight: A McKinsey study showed that companies with pre-defined KPIs were 40% more likely to achieve long-term success than those that adjusted metrics post-campaign to justify their strategies. Lack of Segmented Reporting: When reports only present top-line data without delving into specific player segments (e.g., high-value vs. low-value players), you are likely missing key insights that could help update your predictive models. Supporting Evidence: According to iGaming Business, companies focusing on segmented reporting improved player retention by 25-30% compared to those that didn’t engage in deeper analysis. How to Mitigate Anchoring Bias in iGaming Predictive processing suggests that continual updating of our predictions is key to accurate decision-making. Here’s how iGaming leaders can adopt a Socratic approach to question assumptions and avoid falling prey to anchoring bias: Set Clear KPIs Beforehand: Define success criteria at the start of every campaign. Without clear KPIs, teams will likely manipulate the data to fit their initial predictions, a classic symptom of anchoring bias. Proven Impact: A Harvard Business Review study found that companies with pre-defined, measurable KPIs are 3x more likely to identify underperforming strategies and pivot before suffering major losses. Separate Decision-Making from Analysis: Create systems where the team responsible for designing campaigns is not the same team analyzing the results. This separation allows for more objective performance evaluations, free from emotional attachment to the initial assumptions. Case Study: A 2022 survey of Fortune 500 companies revealed that those separating decision-making from performance analysis saw a 15% increase in campaign effectiveness compared to those that allowed the same teams to handle both. Use Segmented Reporting: Go beyond top-level metrics and dive into segmented data to analyze player behavior by different demographics, playing styles, and value tiers. This approach ensures that your model continually updates based on real-world data, not just on acquisition spikes. Supporting Stat: Companies that focused on segmented reporting improved retention by 25-30%, according to a 2021 report from iGaming Business, compared to those relying on top-line metrics alone. Conclusion: Emulate Socrates, Not Napoleon In iGaming, relying on outdated strategies due to anchoring bias can lead to stagnation and loss of market share. The key to thriving in a dynamic environment is to adopt a Socratic mindset—continually questioning assumptions, seeking new data, and being willing to update your predictive models when necessary. At Bet Data Consultants, we specialize in blending cutting-edge cognitive science with industry expertise to implement data-driven strategies that boost our clients’ businesses and profitability. Reach out for a free consultation or to learn more! Contact us on LinkedIn or email us at info@betdataconsultants.com for a free consultation today. Sources: H2 Gambling Capital 2022 Report Global Betting and Gaming Consultants (GBGC) iGaming Business 2021 Report Harvard Business Review McKinsey & Company Analysis